Anticipating India by Gupta Shekhar

Author:Gupta, Shekhar [Gupta, Shekhar]
Language: eng
Format: mobi
Tags: POLITICS AND GOVERNMENT
Published: 0101-01-01T00:00:00+00:00

LOK SABHA, 2014

That election is now wide open. The winner will be the party which

makes the boldest move away from Old India Politics.

26 February 2011

The first week of a functioning Parliament in nearly six months has made one thing dramatically clear:

that the election of 2014 is no longer a done deal. Opening exchanges showed a new energy in the

opposition, particularly the BJP. In a debate that must rank among the classics of our recent

parliamentary history, Sushma Swaraj notably worsted veteran Pranab Mukherjee, point by point, and

then gave us one of those moments you cherish in parliamentary politics, by giving a smiling Pranabda

a friendly hug at the end of the day. It’s been a long time since we saw a moment like this in our

Parliament.

The BJP’s mood is easier to explain. At this time last year, it was staring at a hopeless future. Its

top leaders engaged in a Mahabharata of sorts, no happy turning point in sight. Across the ideological

fence, Congressmen were sharpening the knives as well, to stab their own in the back as they

jockeyed for the spoils of an election already ‘won’ in 2014. And, in the process, brutally

undermining their own government much like a body afflicted with some autoimmune disease that

begins attacking itself. Both sides would acknowledge that an upset of sorts has now been caused.

Not that the tables have turned but the next election has been thrown open in a way nobody had

anticipated.

Five things have made it happen, three of which are rooted in our major states, Andhra Pradesh,

Bihar and Tamil Nadu. The UPA can’t repeat its near-sweep of 2004 and 2009 in Andhra and Tamil

Nadu. And the disaster of Bihar stunned the Congress. Even more than its tally of four seats, the

shocker was the fact that its candidates lost their deposits in 221 out of the 243 seats it contested. For

the NDA, on the other hand, the success of Bihar showed what kind of political gains were available

in the new India if you were willing to dump old, exclusionist, negative agendas. Bihar has, therefore,

emerged as that fortuitous turning point that an opposition in the dumps prays for. The two factors

outside of these states are the obvious ones: the withering damage the UPA has suffered because of

corruption charges and the discordant, disruptive noises that began emerging from within the

Congress exposing its disastrous complex of ideological laziness, conflicting ambitions and political

imprudence.

To understand this shift, National Interest has to revisit its long-held theory that an Indian national

election is now like a best-of-nine-sets tennis match—whoever wins five of these will take the

trophy. These nine ‘sets’ are our large states where electoral fortunes can change: Uttar Pradesh,

Bihar, Andhra, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Karnataka.

Together, these account for 351 seats in the Lok Sabha, so whichever coalition wins five of these is

likely to cross the 200 mark anyway. That 200 is the new 272 in our Lok Sabha now, as you would

presume that the same coalition would collect some more seats out of the remaining 192, and if it is

still short, some small parties with ideologies totally fungible with power would join it.

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